{"id":18567,"date":"2024-07-18T00:00:13","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T03:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/?p=18567"},"modified":"2024-07-18T00:22:12","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T03:22:12","slug":"nuevos-pronosticos-preven-que-podria-retrasarse-la-llegada-de-fenomeno-la-nina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/?p=18567","title":{"rendered":"Nuevos pron\u00f3sticos prev\u00e9n que podr\u00eda retrasarse la llegada de fen\u00f3meno \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Meteorolog\u00eda<\/h2>\n<p>Los modelos clim\u00e1ticos son cada vez m\u00e1s inciertos sobre la llegada de La Ni\u00f1a. Sigue habiendo incertidumbres, pero ahora la llegada \u201cparece m\u00e1s probable\u201d reci\u00e9n entrada la primavera.\u00a0<i>Qu\u00e9 intensidad prev\u00e9n que tendr\u00e1<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>Contrariamente a lo que indicaban muchos pron\u00f3sticos de meses anteriores, a mediados de julio todav\u00eda se registran condiciones neutras de El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>En cuanto al comportamiento atmosf\u00e9rico, \u201cla convecci\u00f3n tropical, los vientos de bajo y alto nivel sobre el Pac\u00edfico Ecuatorial tambi\u00e9n se han mantenido cercanos a lo normal en las \u00faltimas semanas. Por lo tanto, todo el sistema acoplado oc\u00e9ano-atm\u00f3sfera est\u00e1 experimentando condiciones ENOS neutrales en este momento\u201d, indica un informe difundido por\u00a0<i>Meteored<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Los pron\u00f3sticos anteriores<\/b><br \/>\nDurante la fase final de El Ni\u00f1o 2023-24, a mediados de abril, los modelos clim\u00e1ticos comenzaron a indicar una r\u00e1pida transici\u00f3n hacia La Ni\u00f1a que, seg\u00fan pron\u00f3sticos oficiales de entonces, pod\u00eda desarrollarse entre los meses de junio y agosto. Sin embargo, con el paso de los meses los modelos comenzaron a posponer su llegada.<\/p>\n<p>En los primeros meses de este a\u00f1o \u201cuna intensa burbuja de aguas m\u00e1s fr\u00edas de lo normal comenz\u00f3 a intensificarse en la regi\u00f3n occidental y se desplaz\u00f3 hacia el este del Pac\u00edfico Ecuatorial, mezcl\u00e1ndose con la superficie del agua, generando un r\u00e1pido enfriamiento\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, \u201ca partir de mayo estas aguas subterr\u00e1neas m\u00e1s fr\u00edas perdieron fuerza, reduciendo el ritmo de enfriamiento en la capa m\u00e1s superficial del Pac\u00edfico Ecuatorial\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embed\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/elonce-media.elonce.com\/fotos-nuevo\/2024\/07\/17\/o_1721225305.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><i>Las anomal\u00edas de temperaturas<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Al ver este cambio en la capa subsuperficial, los modelos clim\u00e1ticos comenzaron a\u00a0<b>posponer la llegada de La Ni\u00f1a en sus proyecciones e incluso empezaron a predecir una Ni\u00f1a menos intensa, proyectando que el pr\u00f3ximo evento alcanzar\u00eda, como mucho, la categor\u00eda de intensidad moderada<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo llegar\u00e1 La Ni\u00f1a, finalmente?<\/b><br \/>\nSeg\u00fan la \u00faltima actualizaci\u00f3n del Centro de Predicci\u00f3n Clim\u00e1tica (CPC), se espera que las condiciones neutras contin\u00faen en los pr\u00f3ximos meses, con\u00a0<b>La Ni\u00f1a favorecida para emerger entre agosto y octubre<\/b>\u00a0(70% de probabilidad),\u00a0<b>persistiendo durante el verano<\/b>\u00a0del hemisferio sur de 2024-25 (79% de probabilidad durante noviembre-enero).<\/p>\n<p>Ahora los pron\u00f3sticos indican que\u00a0<b>La Ni\u00f1a probablemente surgir\u00e1 durante los meses de primavera del hemisferio sur (entre septiembre y noviembre)<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Otros organismos internacionales apuestan por un\u00a0<b>inicio m\u00e1s tard\u00edo de La Ni\u00f1a. La Oficina de Meteorolog\u00eda de Australia dice que si La Ni\u00f1a se desarrolla<\/b>, probablemente comenzar\u00e1 entre septiembre y octubre, es decir, a mediados de la primavera. La agencia filipina PAGASA espera que La Ni\u00f1a se confirme entre los meses de octubre y diciembre, prolong\u00e1ndose hasta el primer trimestre de 2025. Fuente: El Once<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/sube-la-temperatura-cuando-podria-comenzar-otra-etapa-de-fuerte-inestabilidad\/el-progreso\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9273\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9273\" src=\"http:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-progreso.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"90\" srcset=\"https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-progreso.png 720w, https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-progreso-300x38.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Meteorolog\u00eda Los modelos clim\u00e1ticos son cada vez m\u00e1s inciertos sobre la llegada de La Ni\u00f1a. Sigue habiendo incertidumbres, pero ahora&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":18568,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nogoya_volanta":"","nogoya_breaking":false,"nogoya_exclusive":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,21,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias","category-provinciales","category-sociedad"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nuevos pron\u00f3sticos prev\u00e9n que podr\u00eda retrasarse la llegada de fen\u00f3meno \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a\u201d - Victoria Al D\u00eda<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/victoriaaldia.com\/?p=18567\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuevos pron\u00f3sticos prev\u00e9n que podr\u00eda retrasarse la llegada de fen\u00f3meno \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a\u201d - Victoria Al D\u00eda\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Meteorolog\u00eda Los modelos clim\u00e1ticos son cada vez m\u00e1s inciertos sobre la llegada de La Ni\u00f1a. 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